Sinjin Bromer ‘27
As the European Union (EU) and United States (US) continue to delay aid, the Ukrainian resistance looks dire. Russia currently continues its assault in Ukraine. Recently, Ukraine has been struck a hard blow as division among its allies leaves the country on its own and unable to reclaim its lost land. Without help soon, Ukraine’s defense could collapse and embolden the world’s autocrats.
As the Russian and Ukraine war passed the two year mark (ten if counting the 2014 proxy war in the Donbas region), Russia persists in its attacks on neighboring Ukraine. Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, failed to gain further US aid on Friday December 15, 2023. Although the Biden Administration has proposed $61 billion in aid for Ukraine, the aid package was rejected by the house and is now tied up in a stalemate between border security and foreign aid to Taiwan, Ukraine, and Israel. However, in February the EU passed a $54 billion Ukrainian aid package after Hungary, whose president is a supporter of Vladimir Putin’s, ended his opposition.
A common consensus, originating from Ukraine, is that it will lose the war without help from the West. Andriy Yarmak, President Zelensky’s chief of staff, spoke at the U.S. Institute for Peace saying: “If the help which [is] now debating in Congress will be just postponed … it gives the big risk that we can be in same position [where] we’re located now.” During his speech, he discusses how liberating lost Ukrainian land would be impossible without US help. When CNN interviewed a Ukrainian medic about foreign help, he said “Without aid, we are finished.” Without help in the war, Ukraine will only lose more land, and as the war drags on longer, US aid is less likely. With the Republican party arguing that US intervention in Ukraine has already been too much, US lawmakers’ opinion has split with many arguing the Middle East and internal matters should be prioritized.
Morally, as the world’s leader in both economics and military power, the US should feel obligated to help support a West-seeking country’s sovereignty from an aggressor. While there are short-term negative financial and political repercussions, the long-term impact outweighs the short-term considerations. The US should aim to aid a country that is becoming progressively more democratic from an authoritarian threat. Not only would a Russian victory raise tensions, but it would mark the death of a democracy.
As of now, Ukraine has aspirations to join NATO and the EU. Although it had been considered too risky in the past, Russia’s attack has NATO members considering the possibility. A Ukrainian victory would be a victory for Democracy, and could be the final act that topples Russia’s dictator.
Taking a more long-term view, if Ukraine were to lose the war, Russia would border NATO with both a larger military and recovered economy. The defeat would also set a precedent for other countries. With a Russian victory, other autocratic countries with nuclear capabilities, such as China and North Korea, may decide that it’s worth testing the US’ resolve in favor of expanding.
India, with the rise of Narendra Modi, is another nuclear power which appears to be interested in increasing territory. If Ukraine lost the war, there are many who could test the current global order. In contrast, if Ukraine were to survive the war, NATO could be strengthened further and restrict Russia’s progression and hostility.. It would also tamp down the ambitions of potential like-minded autocrats.
A Ukrainian victory would also help the US economically in the long term. The fall of Ukraine would put an aggressive Russia on NATO’s borders. It is no secret that Putin wants to reclaim previous land lost during the collapse of the Soviet Union, and a victory would only embolden the country. The US would then have to increase security along Russia’s border to deter any attacks. Such an effort would come at a steep cost, and money has already been a sore topic during the war.
Nevertheless, in the short-term, the war in Ukraine has drained a lot of US money. Many inside the US believe the taxpayer money should instead be focused on internal issues such as border security. There has also been a shift in the US’ view of Russia. According to a survey by Pew Research Center, 44% of Americans believe that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a minor threat. Furthermore, although European nations have increased their defense spending, some Americans believe they should be doing more to support Ukraine.
Nevertheless, given the US’ status as a superpower, our democratic allies in the west often look to the US for leadership. Historically, when the US declined to involve itself on the global stage during periods of international tension, it ultimately cost the US more. For example, politically and economically, it would have been better for the US to commit earlier during World War II. Regardless of whether the US likes it, the rest of the world’s autocrats will be watching its decisions. If Ukraine falls, we will have to do more to deter others.